Heads & Tales: day 21

Herod died shortly after the Holy Family fled to Egypt. We’re not sure precisely how long after, just that his death coincided with a collision of stars in the sky. Which means there were two significant lights in the nativity sky: one to herald the birth of Christ, and one to herald the death of Herod.

Herod knew he wasn’t loved and would not be mourned. He wanted to ensure the Jewish people would grieve his passing, so he ordered that one hundred of the most respected Jewish elders be put to death at the moment he breathed his last. That way, even if the people weren’t mourning for him, they would at least be mourning at the right time. Fortunately, Herod’s orders weren’t carried out. From the moment he died, his influence waned and his legacy of terror began to wane.

It’s ironic, and sad, that Herod thought he was in control right up until the moment he died. He died thinking his will mattered, thinking his legacy mattered, and thinking that he would bend the world to his whims. He died under a cloud of deception. The world didn’t rely on Herod for direction any more than you or me. As soon as he was gone, the world moved on for the better.

I wonder if any of us share Herod’s blindness. Have we convinced ourselves we’re in control? Have we bought into the lie that we actually control what others will do in our absence? What will it take for us to realize that you can only force people to behave the way you want while you’re there to actually force them? How long will it take before we realize that we have no real power over others?

The only change you can guarantee is the change you make to yourself.

The only changes that last are those energized by the Spirit of God.

The only change that matters is that which re-orients your life away from yourself and, instead, re-centers it on God.

You might think more highly of yourself, now, than you should. But, like Herod, there will come a time when all your self-deceptions are exposed. Better to have that happen now while you can still make changes. 

Heads & Tales: day 20

Today I’m writing about paranoia.

By paranoia I don’t mean the clinical diagnoses, but common anxiety experienced to an uncommon degree. I mean excessive worry. I mean the fantasies that run amok in our waking thoughts, causing remote possibilities to become pressing problems necessitating drastic action.

Paranoia causes panic.

The Magi confronted Herod and warned him of a newborn King of the Jews. Herod was already an old, sick man when the Magi visited. Even if a new King had been born, Herod was guaranteed to be long gone before this child could ever pose a threat to his power. Herod cared very little for his biological children—he murdered 3 of them—and was always more likely to perceive them as threats to his power rather than heirs to his legacy. So. It’s unlikely Herod was worried about the newborn King threatening his heirs either.

Truly, that kid wasn’t a threat to anybody.

The nearest threat was that a newborn King might embolden the Parthian Empire to strike against Judea while Herod was still alive, seeking to gain some revenge for the debacle that awarded Herod power in the first place.

But even that threat was remote, since the Parthians were only just beginning to move into Judea with the arrival of the Magi. They knew Herod was almost dead. They just had to wait him out.

Which, again, means the baby in the manger was no threat to anyone.

Except in Herod’s mind.

In Herod’s mind the child was a usurper.

In Herod’s mind the child was unifying his enemies and preparing an invasion.

In Herod’s mind the child’s every breath was stolen from Herod’s lips.

In Herod’s mind the child had to die.

Bethlehem probably only had about two dozen baby boys alive during the nativity season. So Herod killed them all, just to be sure he removed the threat. He believed such drastic action was justified in defense of his power.

But it wasn’t.

Our dark imagination often runs away with us. We imagine circumstances are worse than they really are. We imagine threats where there are none. We let our minds run away with us, positing worst-case scenarios divorced from reality.

True—we aren’t like Herod, not in terms of scale or depth-of-madness.

But, also true—we are like Herod when we let our thoughts deceive us about the true nature of power, security, and what must be done to justify our safety.

But some things can never be justified.

There are some moral absolutes.

We can all agree that babies should never be killed. Right? Or have we found justification for that too?

We can all agree that murder in service to power is inexcusable. Right? Or do we suspect these killings happen frequently?

We can all agree that Christ would never be harmed in our lives. Right? Or, like Herod, do we find him too much of a threat to survive in us?

WESTWINDS AND THE MULTI-SITE REVOLUTION: A Second Campus Rationale

During WWII 300,000 British troops were trapped at Dunkirk by the Germans with the sea as their only escape route. There is no boat big enough to hold 300,000 people; but those men were evacuated safely because the British Navy supplied many little ones.

One church cannot effectively change all of Jackson County, let alone all of southern Michigan or the Midwest. It will take many churches. Some of the churches that will make a difference will be unlike Westwinds; but other churches will need to be tailored, like Westwinds, to the world of Google, Facebook, and the iPhone. We need more churches reaching the spiritually curious, those disenfranchised with organized religion, the intellectuals, and the creatives.

The best way to reach new people is through new churches. For example, did you know that, on average, the older a church the less effective it is in introducing people to Christ? So, if a church is 50 years old they introduce 1 new person to Christ, on average, for every 90 members. That’s a growth rate of only 1.1%/yr. A church of 10 years averages 1 new Christ-follower for every 7 members (14%/yr), and a church of 3 years averages 1 new Christ-follower for every 3 members (33%/yr).

In our contemporary context, 80% of people come to faith in Jesus Christ through churches less than 2 years old. If we believe in the mission of God to heal the world, and we believe that the local church is the way God plans to see it done, then we’ve got to do a better job of planting churches.

There are many ways to start new churches, but – contrary to popular opinion – finding some lone church planter to go off by themselves into a new city is the least effective. Conversely, the most effective (and least risky) kind of church plant is to create a franchise.

This is the same idea we see so often in business. For example, after a frustrating vacation stuck in too many dirty, sour motels, a Tennessee businessman came up with a novel idea: a network of family-friendly hotels across the country, all with the same name. We know this network as the Holiday Inn, and people loved it right from the start – a place where you could always count on experiencing the same quality and find a core of common features, such as an on-premises restaurant and a child-friendly environment.

That’s what we want to do with Westwinds – we want to create franchises so people can go to a variety of locations and experience Team Jesus, Westwinds style. In the church world, we refer to that as becoming a ‘multi-site’ congregation, and there are currently over 2,000 multi-site churches in the USA alone. In contrast to beginning a new church from scratch, a multi-site expansion keeps the overhead costs low (the same staff can be utilized, the same resources and materials) and quickly overcomes the hurdles against which most new churches struggle (such as mission, vision, core values, and strategic alignment). A multi-site church benefits from the wisdom and experience of existing elder and finance teams, policy and procedures, as well as having a strong, built-in missional DNA.

With a multi-site church you get the excitement of a new church start, with the stability and excellence that comes from existing church success.

MULTI-SITE BENEFITS:

low risk, low cost

brand new church, with a trusted brand

new church vibe plus big church quality

sharing resources (atlases, satellites, staff, budget, elders/finance) shared DNA/core pre-established network for problem solving increases total number of seats available during optimal worship times enables untapped talent – new opportunities for ministry and involvement

After reviewing these simple facts, I can’t help but wonder: If this is the most effective means of introducing new people into the kingdom in America, and if we can do it cheaply, locally, and without much risk, why wouldn’t we? We’ve got free space on the second-largest traffic route for 20miles (1825 Spring Arbor road, where we’re renovating our youth center). We’ve got top level staff and professional grade resources. If anyone can think of a good way to do a new thing it’s us.

Nothing is stopping us.

Think of it this way: Jackson has a great pizza parlor, Klavon’s, where everyone likes to eat Chicago-style pizza. But Klavon’s is just one spot, and it’s way out in Rives Junction. If Klavon’s wants to find 1,000 new customers they’re going to have to be in more than one location. A new location, even one fairly close, gives Klavon’s the opportunity to gather 1,000 new pizza lovers.

That’s what we want to do. We can’t make a bigger Westwinds, but if start another one we get our bests opportunity at introducing 1,000 new people to Team Jesus, Westwinds’ style.

One final thought: becoming a multi-site congregation is a cool idea with some neat potential, but it’s not an end-unto-itself. It’s not even a strategy for growth, but a way for our church to keep on growing. What truly stimulates growth is our commitment to shadow God and heal the world. That’s what fuels and funds transformation in the lives of real people, and that’s what will fuel and fund the transformation of our church in the future.

The new Westwinds campus!

it feels like i haven't blogged in a LONG time. sorry about that.

part of the reason concerns the changing landscape at westwinds. we've been working hard since january to prepare for the opening of our new campus: 1825 spring arbor road (at the hub). services will be held there every sunday morning at 10am, in between our regular 9 am & 11 am services on robinson road.

because so many of you have asked, i'll do my best to field a couple of common questions about the new campus:

1. who will be speaking there?

- myself and ben. simply put, there are 12 opportunities to speak in a typical (4-week) month. i will be speaking 9 of those times and ben will do the other three. on most sundays i will speak at robinson at 9, drive to spring arbor to speak at 10, then back to robinson at 11. some days, however, i'll just do one campus or the other, as will ben.

2. who will be doing music?

- jvo and chad. jvo will be overseeing the music at both campuses, but chad will be leading at the hub 3 out of every 4 weeks. on the odd week of the month chad and jvo will rotate.

3. will the hub be very different from robinson road?

- yes and no. what we do at robinson, we will do at the hub. it will still be westwinds - complete with weirdness and wonder - but, by virtue of the fact that the room is different and the location is different, we anticipate that the new campus will take on a life (and to some extent a personality) all its own.

4. will there be childcare/kids' journey at the hub?

- yes, but only up until kindergarten. if your children are age 6 or older, then robinson road will likely serve your family better.

5. i'm new to westwinds. which campus should i go to?

- go to the hub. new campuses are the best place for new people to get plugged in and involved in hands-on ministry. you're far more likely to make friends and get connected at the hub than at robinson.

hope that helps!

westwinds youth center

yesterday we announced that we will launch out ww youth center in march of this year. it's going to be a significant push forward for our church, but a crucial one. we believe in the power of the gospel to change people's lives, and this feels like the right next step to do that at scale.

30?!

i'm just now realizing that the "common time" teaching atlas, second in the "seasons of christian spirituality" series is now 30th atlas.

30. wow. that's a lot of books, a lot of research, and a lot of writing.

the early atlases were amateurish at best, but they got a lot better over the years. in true bull-in-a-china-shop mcdonald fashion, i've blundered my way from sermon transcripts to something much more like a phd thesis (with charm, though) published every 4-6 weeks.

whew.

i feel proud about how far i've come, and exceedingly glad at how many other people all over the world have contacted me and thanked me for making these resources available on amazon.com and through westwinds. but mostly, i feel thankful. i feel thankful to god for placing me in a spot where i can do this. i feel thankful to carmel and the kids for putting up with me when i do this. i feel thankful to the staff at the winds who pick up the slack while i do this. and i feel thankful for the windies who gobble it up everytime i finish doing this.

god is good,
and so are you.

here's to better and better resources, and a better experience with god, for another 30 installments or so!

D

WW Kids Journey does it right on Halloween

another westwinds commercial

a couple days with len sweet

thursday and friday Jvo and I were in manhattan with len sweet (author, futurist, and friend). len has had a significant impact on my life, and been my unofficial patron ever since i finished up at george fox university 4 years ago. he has fed me insights and intellectual tidbits, included me in his proposals and future plans, and - most astonishingly - always returned my phone calls.

we were meeting len to follow up on his visit to the winds this past spring. we wanted to hear him feedback on our unique strengths (as well as our weaknesses), and give him permission to speak critically about the church, our leadership style, our emphasis, and our spirit.

it was an incredible two days. len was fantastically affirming and - as always - very generous (both in his praise and through giving thoughtful gifts to Jvo and I).

of the many impressions he left me with, it was his generosity that impacted me the most. after a great morning, during which he treated us to a variety of life's finer things, i said to John: everytime i'm with len i'm reminded of how generous God is. it makes me want to do for others like len has done for us. i want to help others think through critical issues. i want to encourage others not to give up or change from the course they know to be "theirs." i want to give gifts that foster the imagination. i want to be like len being like Christ.

and i do.

thanks, len, for your investment in us and in the winds.

thanks, westwinds, for the freedom and permission to learn from one of the greats.

D

Jerm

a few years ago i signed a book contract with a christian publisher for a project called "jerm."

it was my attempt to try and make sense of christian spirituality for the layperson - to try and take the wisdom of the ancients (spanish mystics, desert fathers, etc) and colloquialize them into the language of 21st century southern michigan.

i just felt (and still feel) that most of the writing on spiritual formation is written by a certain kind of personality for a certain kind of personality, and if you're going to get much out of it you're probably going to have to hate sports and begin listening to folk music.

but the interior life is so important - the teachings of john chrysostom, athanasius, john of the cross, theresa of avila need to be understood and incorporated by normal folk.

but normal folks are never going to be able to read that stuff.

so i wrote jerm

my first draft was just shy of 300 pages.

during a long and frustrating process, i lost the contract with the publisher and jerm was never published.

fast forward 3 years and i am now writing the september teaching atlas for the good folks at the winds. i'm (re)writing jerm, now called "shadowing god."

after revisions and cuttings and clippings and rewritings...i'm left with 34 pages of the original manuscript.

to be fair, at least 2/3 of the jerm manuscript i discarded simply because i didn't like the direction in which the publisher had nudged me; so, probably i've only pared down the manuscript from 100 pages or so into 34.

but still...

anyway, suffice to say this book has been long in the making. my ambitions for the project remain the same: i want people to know how to live the life for which god intended them.

not following steps or using 7 easy keys,
but walking with the spirit
paying attention to nuance
listening
and looking for signs of god's activity in the world.

and then following suite
and shadowing god

the cutting room floor

hemmingway once said that in order for a book to be perfect, you usually have to take out your favorite part.

i don't know that i'll achieve hemmingway-status, but i bounced my favorite part out of bleached tonight at exactly 2:31am.

here it is:

Some time ago I was at a gathering of pastors, informally, and found myself (as usual) playing the malcontent, going against the grain like I loved the ride. In this instance, I was getting pretty heated over a common leadership failing among ministers: friendship.

Pastors, as a rule, don’t have many friends. Usually this is because the friends we’ve had in the past have turned on us because of some situation or decision involving our leadership. We’re not perfect, and everyone gets that, but it becomes harder to overlook that when we find ourselves in specific situations where we have the power to do things others don’t like and we do them anyway. It costs you friends.

And we don’t usually do a good job of making new friends, because there’s always some little sin-sponsored voice in the back of our heads saying: Sure, make a friend. Jesus would have had another Judas if he’d stuck around longer…I’m sure this guy will be awesome.

Right.

So we get scared,

stay guarded,

and live alone.

Anyway, I’m often bolsheviked by the way senior pastors treat their staff members. We treat them like employees. Which, I get it, we have to to a certain degree – certainly our employees cannot help but think of us as their employers (especially at the beginning) – but I actually think it’s wrong for the church to run like a business. I mean it, I think running a church like a corporation is unethical. Corporations, after all, are hardly the paragon of morality and goodness in the world; so why are so many churches intent on adopting their model of government and hierarchy?

Beats me.

I serve King Jesus, who told his disciples I no longer call you servants, but friends.

Servant leadership is what every does

when they’re trying to imitate Jesus.

I want something more.

I want to incarnate Christ,

not copy him.

I want to do ministry with my friends – and if they’re not my friends at the beginning, I really want to become their friend over time. And this can’t always happen, but it’s always what I want.

Did I mention friends cost you something?

Right. Back to the pastor’s gathering…a bunch of my peers were talking about how hard it is to fire your friends. I sympathize. I once had to “downsize” several of my friends because of budgetary constraints. I cried like Shirley Temple. It was necessary, but awful. I’ve also had to terminate the employment of someone I thought was my friend, because he was acting immorally and refused accountability. That made me mad. He was my friend, and our friendship deserved better than what he gave it.

But I’ve never fired a friend because they weren’t corporate enough, or educated enough, or from the right demographic, or the right socio-economic status, or because they weren’t doing things in the precise way I wanted all of the time. I’ve never fired someone just because they weren’t “it.” But that’s what my peers were discussion – firing someone who just couldn’t cut it.

No option to retrain them.

No opportunity to hire over them.

No alternative but to sever them.

Who severs their friends?

Who can live with themselves when they do that,

in Jesus’ church,

in Christ’s kingdom in microcosm,

where the last shall be first,

where we no longer have servants

but friends?

It is hard, granted, to fire someone – to sit in judgment over them and decide their fate with the scepter of good management acumen –

but it’s far harder,

far more sacrificial to grow with them,

to walk alongside them,

and to love them as Christ has loved us.

And – just as an FYI – you’re going to get way more productivity, energy, and visionary leadership out of your employees when they know you’ll take a bullet for them.

We overstep our Christian ethic when we play judge and call it leadership. There are standards for employees, and they should be held to those standards, but if we want to lead the Jesus way we’ve got to leave them room to grow.

So as we grow, we’ve got someone to be there for us to.

So we don’t die alone.

So we’re not crying in our communion one empty Christmas Eve when our wife has left and we have no one to call, no one to comfort, and no one to speak hope.

There is a deep connection between the way we work and the way we live, but we miss that interconnectedness when we elevate ourselves above others, play God, and look down to pronounce judgment.

Don’t do that anymore.

God may be One, but we need one another.

for the winds...

of course, i've had plenty of time to think about the winds while i've been away and i've got lots cookin...

two things are worth mentioning here, as a tiny priming of the pumps

#1 i'm jonesing to try some new stuff with the teaching, but i'll need help. i want the teaching to be as interactive as possible - catering to those of all learning styles and intelligences - so i'm looking for techno-geeks and some artsy-fartsy types to help me pimp stuff out on the weekends

#2 because the winds has always been a *boutique and not a *big box kind of church, we've always known that our future successes are more likely to come in the shape of multiple locations (of boutique churches) rather than transitioning our church into a kind of holy walmart. we've failed twice at this: once we pulled the plug in ann arbor (because our friend randy got sick and creating new churches was WAY less of a priority), and once we aborted a merger with another church. somehow, someway, we've got to get back on the multi-site horse and make a ride for the sunrise.

1,000 True Fans

(found this great article from kevin kelly, via michael hyatt on twitter...loved this)


(also, see seth godin apply this theory to business here)


The long tail is famously good news for two classes of people; a few lucky aggregators, such as Amazon and Netflix, and 6 billion consumers. Of those two, I think consumers earn the greater reward from the wealth hidden in infinite niches.

But the long tail is a decidedly mixed blessing for creators. Individual artists, producers, inventors and makers are overlooked in the equation. The long tail does not raise the sales of creators much, but it does add massive competition and endless downward pressure on prices. Unless artists become a large aggregator of other artist's works, the long tail offers no path out of the quiet doldrums of minuscule sales.

Other than aim for a blockbuster hit, what can an artist do to escape the long tail?

One solution is to find 1,000 True Fans. While some artists have discovered this path without calling it that, I think it is worth trying to formalize. The gist of 1,000 True Fans can be stated simply:

A creator, such as an artist, musician, photographer, craftsperson, performer, animator, designer, videomaker, or author - in other words, anyone producing works of art - needs to acquire only 1,000 True Fans to make a living.

A True Fan is defined as someone who will purchase anything and everything you produce. They will drive 200 miles to see you sing. They will buy the super deluxe re-issued hi-res box set of your stuff even though they have the low-res version. They have a Google Alert set for your name. They bookmark the eBay page where your out-of-print editions show up. They come to your openings. They have you sign their copies. They buy the t-shirt, and the mug, and the hat. They can't wait till you issue your next work. They are true fans.


To raise your sales out of the flatline of the long tail you need to connect with your True Fans directly. Another way to state this is, you need to convert a thousand Lesser Fans into a thousand True Fans.

Assume conservatively that your True Fans will each spend one day's wages per year in support of what you do. That "one-day-wage" is an average, because of course your truest fans will spend a lot more than that. Let's peg that per diem each True Fan spends at $100 per year. If you have 1,000 fans that sums up to $100,000 per year, which minus some modest expenses, is a living for most folks.

One thousand is a feasible number. You could count to 1,000. If you added one fan a day, it would take only three years. True Fanship is doable. Pleasing a True Fan is pleasurable, and invigorating. It rewards the artist to remain true, to focus on the unique aspects of their work, the qualities that True Fans appreciate.

The key challenge is that you have to maintain direct contact with your 1,000 True Fans. They are giving you their support directly. Maybe they come to your house concerts, or they are buying your DVDs from your website, or they order your prints from Pictopia. As much as possible you retain the full amount of their support. You also benefit from the direct feedback and love.

The technologies of connection and small-time manufacturing make this circle possible. Blogs and RSS feeds trickle out news, and upcoming appearances or new works. Web sites host galleries of your past work, archives of biographical information, and catalogs of paraphernalia. Diskmakers, Blurb, rapid prototyping shops, Myspace, Facebook, and the entire digital domain all conspire to make duplication and dissemination in small quantities fast, cheap and easy. You don't need a million fans to justify producing something new. A mere one thousand is sufficient.

This small circle of diehard fans, which can provide you with a living, is surrounded by concentric circles of Lesser Fans. These folks will not purchase everything you do, and may not seek out direct contact, but they will buy much of what you produce. The processes you develop to feed your True Fans will also nurture Lesser Fans. As you acquire new True Fans, you can also add many more Lesser Fans. If you keep going, you may indeed end up with millions of fans and reach a hit. I don't know of any creator who is not interested in having a million fans.

But the point of this strategy is to say that you don't need a hit to survive. You don't need to aim for the short head of best-sellerdom to escape the long tail. There is a place in the middle, that is not very far away from the tail, where you can at least make a living. That mid-way haven is called 1,000 True Fans. It is an alternate destination for an artist to aim for.

Young artists starting out in this digitally mediated world have another path other than stardom, a path made possible by the very technology that creates the long tail. Instead of trying to reach the narrow and unlikely peaks of platinum hits, bestseller blockbusters, and celebrity status, they can aim for direct connection with 1,000 True Fans. It's a much saner destination to hope for. You make a living instead of a fortune. You are surrounded not by fad and fashionable infatuation, but by True Fans. And you are much more likely to actually arrive there.

A few caveats. This formula - one thousand direct True Fans -- is crafted for one person, the solo artist. What happens in a duet, or quartet, or movie crew? Obviously, you'll need more fans. But the additional fans you'll need are in direct geometric proportion to the increase of your creative group. In other words, if you increase your group size by 33%, you need add only 33% more fans. This linear growth is in contrast to the exponential growth by which many things in the digital domain inflate. I would not be surprise to find that the value of your True Fans network follows the standard network effects rule, and increases as the square of the number of Fans. As your True Fans connect with each other, they will more readily increase their average spending on your works. So while increasing the numbers of artists involved in creation increases the number of True Fans needed, the increase does not explode, but rises gently and in proportion.

A more important caution: Not every artist is cut out, or willing, to be a nurturer of fans. Many musicians just want to play music, or photographers just want to shoot, or painters paint, and they temperamentally don't want to deal with fans, especially True Fans. For these creatives, they need a mediator, a manager, a handler, an agent, a galleryist -- someone to manage their fans. Nonetheless, they can still aim for the same middle destination of 1,000 True Fans. They are just working in a duet.

Third distinction. Direct fans are best. The number of True Fans needed to make a living indirectly inflates fast, but not infinitely. Take blogging as an example. Because fan support for a blogger routes through advertising clicks (except in the occasional tip-jar), more fans are needed for a blogger to make a living. But while this moves the destination towards the left on the long tail curve, it is still far short of blockbuster territory. Same is true in book publishing. When you have corporations involved in taking the majority of the revenue for your work, then it takes many times more True Fans to support you. To the degree an author cultivates direct contact with his/her fans, the smaller the number needed.

Lastly, the actual number may vary depending on the media. Maybe it is 500 True Fans for a painter and 5,000 True Fans for a videomaker. The numbers must surely vary around the world. But in fact the actual number is not critical, because it cannot be determined except by attempting it. Once you are in that mode, the actual number will become evident. That will be the True Fan number that works for you. My formula may be off by an order of magnitude, but even so, its far less than a million.

I've been scouring the literature for any references to the True Fan number. Suck.com co-founder Carl Steadman had theory about microcelebrities. By his count, a microcelebrity was someone famous to 1,500 people. So those fifteen hundred would rave about you. As quoted by Danny O'Brien, "One person in every town in Britain likes your dumb online comic. That's enough to keep you in beers (or T-shirt sales) all year."

Others call this microcelebrity support micro-patronage, or distributed patronage.

In 1999 John Kelsey and Bruce Schneier published a model for this in First Monday, an online journal. They called it the Street Performer Protocol.

Using the logic of a street performer, the author goes directly to the readers before the book is published; perhaps even before the book is written. The author bypasses the publisher and makes a public statement on the order of: "When I get $100,000 in donations, I will release the next novel in this series."

Readers can go to the author's Web site, see how much money has already been donated, and donate money to the cause of getting his novel out. Note that the author doesn't care who pays to get the next chapter out; nor does he care how many people read the book that didn't pay for it. He just cares that his $100,000 pot gets filled. When it does, he publishes the next book. In this case "publish" simply means "make available," not "bind and distribute through bookstores." The book is made available, free of charge, to everyone: those who paid for it and those who did not.

In 2004 author Lawrence Watt-Evans used this model to publish his newest novel. He asked his True Fans to collectively pay $100 per month. When he got $100 he posted the next chapter of the novel. The entire book was published online for his True Fans, and then later in paper for all his fans. He is now writing a second novel this way. He gets by on an estimated 200 True Fans because he also publishes in the traditional manner -- with advances from a publisher supported by thousands of Lesser Fans. Other authors who use fans to directly support their work are Diane Duane, Sharon Lee and Steve Miller, and Don Sakers. Game designer Greg Stolze employed a similar True Fan model to launch two pre-financed games. Fifty of his True Fans contributed seed money for his development costs.

The genius of the True Fan model is that the fans are able to move an artist away from the edges of the long tail to a degree larger than their numbers indicate. They can do this in three ways: by purchasing more per person, by spending directly so the creator keeps more per sale, and by enabling new models of support.

New models of support include micro-patronage. Another model is pre-financing the startup costs. Digital technology enables this fan support to take many shapes. Fundable is a web-based enterprise which allows anyone to raise a fixed amount of money for a project, while reassuring the backers the project will happen. Fundable withholds the money until the full amount is collected. They return the money if the minimum is not reached.

Fundable

Here's an example from Fundable's site;

Amelia, a twenty-year-old classical soprano singer, pre-sold her first CD before entering a recording studio. "If I get $400 in pre-orders, I will be able to afford the rest [of the studio costs]," she told potential contributors. Fundable's all-or-nothing model ensured that none of her customers would lose money if she fell short of her goal. Amelia sold over $940 in albums.

A thousand dollars won't keep even a starving artist alive long, but with serious attention, a dedicated artist can do better with their True Fans. Jill Sobule, a musician who has nurtured a sizable following over many years of touring and recording, is doing well relying on her True Fans. Recently she decided to go to her fans to finance the $75,000 professional recording fees she needed for her next album. She has raised close to $50,000 so far. By directly supporting her via their patronage, the fans gain intimacy with their artist. According to the Associated Press:

Contributors can choose a level of pledges ranging from the $10 "unpolished rock," which earns them a free digital download of her disc when it's made, to the $10,000 "weapons-grade plutonium level," where she promises "you get to come and sing on my CD. Don't worry if you can't sing - we can fix that on our end." For a $5,000 contribution, Sobule said she'll perform a concert in the donor's house. The lower levels are more popular, where donors can earn things like an advanced copy of the CD, a mention in the liner notes and a T-shirt identifying them as a "junior executive producer" of the CD.

The usual alternative to making a living based on True Fans is poverty. A study as recently as 1995 showed that the accepted price of being an artist was large. Sociologist Ruth Towse surveyed artists in Britian and determined that on average they earned below poverty subsistence levels.

I am suggesting there is a home for creatives in between poverty and stardom. Somewhere lower than stratospheric bestsellerdom, but higher than the obscurity of the long tail. I don't know the actual true number, but I think a dedicated artist could cultivate 1,000 True Fans, and by their direct support using new technology, make an honest living. I'd love to hear from anyone who might have settled on such a path.